UTEP Forecasts Border Economic Recovery in 2023
EL PASO, TX – The University of Texas at El Paso (UTEP) predicted that the region will post an economic recovery beginning in 2023, despite the challenges caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, including supply chain disruptions and the 19-month border closure.
In the latest Borderplex Economic Outlook report, UTEP highlights that the regional economy will recover as long as the pandemic does not worsen and interest rate hikes caused by rising inflation are not excessive.
The report contains forecasts of demographic trends, economic activity, employment, personal income and other data for El Paso, Texas; Las Cruces, New Mexico; Juarez, Mexico; and Chihuahua City.
“The Borderplex regional economy exhibited admirable resilience in the face of pandemic-related economic difficulties in 2021. Despite several downside risks, more good news is expected in 2022,” said Tom Fullerton, professor of economics at UTEP.
According to the report, El Paso County’s unemployment rate is expected to continue to decline in 2022 and 2023. In addition to that job growth is expected in the construction industry, the financial sector, healthcare services and call centers. Estimates indicate that jobs in the city will exceed 474,000 in 2023.
After over 19 months of border travel restrictions at international bridges, automobile and pedestrian traffic experienced a sharp increase when the ports of entry were successfully reopened in November 2021, according to the document, so essential goods traffic at international ports of entry is expected to set a new record.
The report indicates that the population of Juarez, Mexico, will exceed 1.57 million people in 2023, while the number of manufacturing plants in the city will reach 335 and nominal wages will rise to $5.16 per hour in 2023.
In the city of Chihuahua, Mexico, the number of manufacturing plants is expected to reach 112 in 2023, with an average hourly wage of US$5.31. It also highlights that as long as the pandemic does not worsen, trade is expected to pick up in both metropolitan economies.
Improving labor market conditions helped spur population growth in Las Cruces in 2021. By 2023, the population of Doña Ana County is projected to reach 227,000; furthermore, total employment in that city is expected to reach 107,000 by the end of the forecast, with wage and salary outlays exceeding $3.8 billion in 2023.
Source: MEXICONOW Staff